The mobility of the future is 'easy' - electric, autonomous, shared, connected and updated 'annually'. In this study, we look at the factors impacting the industry through 2030 in key markets in the US, Europe and China. It also shows how the automotive industry needs to restructure itself in terms of volume, scale and complexity.
Mathematical models were used to look at key performance indicators and demographic trends. Based on that, this report focuses on:
- User mobility behavior through social personas and how they can influence traffic demand;
- External factors that influence mobility behaviour, mileage and frequency of use;
- Forecasts of car inventory, replacement cycles and new sales; and
- Consequences for manufacturers, suppliers, service providers and their business models.
'easy'
Electric - the transition to zero-emission mobility will become a global requirement. Electricity to charge vehicles will increasingly come from renewable sources to ensure CO2 neutral mobility.
Autonomous - The development of vehicles without human intervention will reduce the use of public mobility platforms but on the other hand provide mobility to new user groups.
Shared - Professionally managed fleets of shared vehicles will significantly reduce the cost of mobility through more efficient use of mobile resources.
Connected - This applies in two ways: communication between cars or between vehicle occupants and the outside world. The car of the future will become a "third place" between home and work, combining the characteristics of both.
Updated 'Annually' - The models are updated annually to integrate the latest hardware and software developments and respond to the changing needs of shared vehicle buyers.
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Our mobility habits will change
The percentage of shared and autonomous mobility on the road will increase considerably.
Our predictions show that by 2030 more than one in three kilometers driven will already be in the form of the 'car sharing' concept. At the same time, user preferences will move more towards autonomous mobility. We calculate based on mileage that around 2030 the share of autonomous driving in traffic can rise to 40%. Developments in Europe and the US are expected to proceed at roughly the same pace. In China, on the other hand, shared and autonomous mobility seems to be taking place more quickly than in the western world. This means that China will become the leading market for automotive industry transformation.