The Streamer Churn: Will Netflix be Unseated or Not?

Streaming is booming. There’s no doubt about it. Yet, with the heightened competition and added budgetary stress in a world where inflation is high and general costs soaring across the board, it’s still a tumultuous market. Over the next few years, we’ll see who survives the inevitable contraction of growth, and who comes out ahead. This week we’ve seen UK media consultancy, Omdia, release an intriguing survey that gives some hints as to the future of the streaming landscape. Entertainment lawyer Brandon Blake, of Blake & Wang P.A, breaks out the facts and figures for us.

Omdia Research

The overall news from the Omdia survey was mixed. Streaming services in the UK have been canceled at a rate of 45%, mostly explained by Big Name entrants into the market luring subscribers away from other platforms. However, re-subscriptions also rose by 84% over the previous year. Overall, we see a growth of 11% in new subscribers to video services.

Of that growth, Disney+ took 21%, far eclipsing Netflix’s 8%. Netflix retains overall market share at 15.5M subscribers, however. Amazon Prime follows at 10M, and Disney+ shows strong growth, already claiming 7.5M subscribers in the territory. Four of every five UK households have at least one streaming subscription.

As opposed to the domestic US market, the UK has only recently gained access to some key streaming services, including Disney+ and Peacock in 2021, and the imminent rollout of Paramount+. That explains the urge to cancel and switch well enough. However, it’s the second statistic we mentioned- those who canceled, and then changed their mind and almost immediately re-subscribed or subscribed elsewhere- that is the most interesting in the batch. This indicates a lot of churn in the streaming subscription market, but that subscriptions aren’t being jettisoned altogether. Despite the looming crisis in cost-of-living, streaming is still thriving overall, and is seen as a cheap way to entertain families with tightened purse strings.

Shaping Future Trends

There’s been a bit of a tendency in recent weeks to write off Netflix as stagnant and failing to adapt to the changing market. While some of these criticisms are valid enough, the forward-looking trends suggested by Omdia’s research seem to suggest the nay-sayers have moved in a little too quickly.

It’s certainly crystal clear that Disney+, with its deep pockets, massive back catalog, and universal childhood appeal, is cutting deeply into the streaming market. It’s well set to be the fastest-growing subscription service on offer over the next five years. However, Omdia still suggests that Netflix will remain ahead of the pack despite the recent setback. Five-year predictions currently sit at 260M global subscribers for Netflix, based on the researched trends, with Disney predicted to close in, but not pass them, with 240M.

They placed Amazon Prime in third place, predicting 150M global subscribers by 2026, a position it nearly ties with the growth anticipated for whatever combined entity rises from the merged HBO Max Discovery+ entity soon to be unveiled. Peacock and Paramount+ close out their Top 5 list.

As with all speculative trends based on current statistics, a lot can change by then, but it’s an interesting glimpse into the possible future all the same. It’s also a strong testimony to the power of entertainment brand names. Will Omdia be proved right? It’s impossible to say, but an interesting read into current streaming statistics and behavior nonetheless.